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Looking To 2020, Both Democrats and Republicans See Costs and Benefits of Trump’s ‘MAGA’ Rallies in Midterm Election Results

Los Angeles Times

By Noah Bierman

“People entered the 2018 election with pretty strong views of the president, one way or another,” said Bruce Mehlman, a Republican strategist and lobbyist who publishes a widely read political analysis. “The rallies didn’t change them. But the rallies allowed the president to make the election a referendum on him.”

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Lobbyists Target Newly Elected Democrats

Politico

By Theordoric Meyer and Marianne Levine

The number of new Democratic members who have forsworn accepting corporate PAC contributions — which would climb to 41 if T.J. Cox is confirmed to have beaten Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), according to End Citizens United PAC — has made some corporations nervous. Lobbyists have tried to reassure their clients that not all the newly elected Democrats consider themselves part of the progressive wing of the party. “When you look at those new members, there are a lot of moderate members, too,” said David Castagnetti, a partner at the lobbying firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. “They’re not all hostile toward business.”

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House Results Underscore That What’s Good For Trump Isn’t So Good For The GOP

The Washington Post

By Dan Balz

Republican strategist Bruce Mehlman produced a set of charts analyzing the 2018 election, including one showing various fault lines within the electorate. They include divisions based on race, age, gender, education and geography. Race — whites vs. nonwhites — remains the biggest divide of all. But geography is by far the fastest growing, and now the urban-rural divide is almost as wide as the divide between whites and nonwhites.

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The Midterms Destroyed Some Conventional Wisdom

The Washington Post

By Jennifer Rubin

Axios reports that a post-election analysis from consultants found, “Democrats won 87% of the Congressional districts with the most college-educated women (40%+ of female residents).” One of the consultants, Bruce Mehlman, is quoted as saying, “The new geography of Trump Era partisanship is turning suburban congressional districts into GOP killing fields, more than offsetting gerrymander gains by mobilizing intense opposition among college educated women, the beating heart of the suburbs.

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Trickle-Down Representation: Will the Most Diverse Congress Make Capitol Hill More Diverse?

The Washington Post

By Colby Itkowitz

It’s well established that when it comes to diversity, Congress has not accurately represented the United States at large. The share of female, African American, Latino and Asian lawmakers is significantly lower than in the American population. The new class of Democrats, with the first Muslim and Native American women ever elected to Congress, is changing the makeup of Capitol Hill. Just look at this graph from D.C.-based Republican lobbyist Bruce Mehlman.

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Republicans Planning Bite-Sized Health Initiatives in Lame Duck

Bloomberg

By Shira Stein

A bill to suspend the Obamacare mandate that employers insure their workers and delay the law’s “Cadillac” tax on high-cost insurance plans (H.R. 3798) won House Ways and Means Committee approval before the fall recess and Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) has said it could get a vote in November. Bringing the bill up for a vote in the lame duck session is “very likely and was always the plan,” Dean Rosen, a partner at Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas, told Bloomberg Government. “Senate action is another matter.” Rosen said he thinks “the elections will really dictate the appetite to do anything big in the lame duck on Cadillac or anything else.”

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California lawmakers poised to wield power in a Democratic House

San Francisco Chronicle

By Tal Kopan

“It’s extraordinarily important to push back against a president who is very anti-California, and you think about the talented delegation we have,” said Steve Haro, a lobbyist and former senior staffer for California Democrats Sen. Dianne Feinstein and ex-Rep. Xavier Becerra. “The influence and power they’re going to wield and the respect they have of their current colleagues will put California in a great driving position to push back against the White House and potentially get some serious legislation done,” Haro said.

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Trump’s Drug-Pricing Policies Fail to Move the Needle

National Journal

By Erin Durkin

Lauren Aronson, executive director for the Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing, said the administration deserves credit for the work it has been doing in this area, and pointed to the Medicare Advantage policy as a move that will have an impact on beneficiary costs. “To move major markets takes quite a bit of time and so I think the administration is doing a lot here to try to move the needle,” she said.

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Kavanaugh slugfest could boost GOP in midterms, as polls show voter interest rising

Fox News

By Gregg Re

Political headwinds normally work against the party of incumbent presidents in their first midterm elections. According to an analysis by former George W. Bush administration official Bruce Mehlman, in the past 11 such midterm seasons, new presidents saw their party make net gains only once in the House, four times in the Senate and zero times in state gubernatorial contests.

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